The impending loss of exclusivity for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, in 2026 is poised to transform the anti-obesity medication (AOM) market, particularly in countries like India, China, Canada, Brazil, and Turkey, which represent 40% of the global population and 33% of adults with obesity. With combined sales of $26 billion in 2024 and a 40% annual growth rate, semaglutide’s patent expiration in these markets will introduce off-patent versions, intensifying competition and reshaping treatment landscapes. In India, over ten companies are developing off-patent semaglutide, with seven focusing on oral formulations to differentiate from injectables. China sees 17 candidates in advanced trials, leveraging its manufacturing prowess, while partnerships, like Biocon’s with Biomm in Brazil, signal global expansion efforts.

The diabetes market, where semaglutide is well-established, is unlikely to see significant changes due to existing reimbursement structures. However, in obesity treatment, where public funding is limited, off-patent semaglutide could drive significant shifts. Potential scenarios include expanded private market access in price-sensitive regions like India and China, where lower-cost generics may increase demand.

In Canada, off-patent semaglutide could become a first-line AOM if classified as a generic, enabling up to 75% price reductions and facilitating public reimbursement. It may also serve as a cost-effective “maintenance” therapy or a “starter” drug, encouraging patients to test weight-loss treatments before switching to newer agents like tirzepatide. High price sensitivity could lead to fluid brand-switching, emphasizing the need for robust branding and distribution strategies.

Manufacturers face pricing pressures and must navigate complex distribution channels, including wholesalers, online pharmacies, and telemedicine platforms. Innovators like Novo Nordisk and Lilly may counter with enhanced services, oral formulations, or competitive pricing for newer molecules like orforglipron. The rise of off-patent semaglutide presents risks, including counterfeiting, necessitating stringent quality control. Overall, 2026 marks a pivotal moment for obesity care, expanding access, altering treatment pathways, and providing strategic insights for future market dynamics as exclusivity ends in larger markets by the early 2030s.

Source: https://www.iqvia.com/locations/emea/blogs/2025/07/off-patent-semaglutide