The researchers set out to find out how over-time variation in insulin resistance (IR) may influence the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Researchers studied data from a large Chinese health survey and used two key markers to measure IR: the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and the TyG-BMI index (which combines TyG with body mass index).

They tracked these markers for seven years in about 3,966 members with a mean age of 58. Members were divided into four groups based on their IR patterns: low and stable, increasing, decreasing, and high and stable. Results showed that members in the high and stable or increasing IR groups were at significantly higher risk of developing CVD compared to members in the low and stable group. This suggests that consistently high or rising IR levels over time can strongly predict the development of future heart problems.

The study used advanced statistical methods to adjust for other factors that could affect the result, such as age, weight, and history of disease. It also showed that the TyG-BMI index was superior to the TyG index in the prediction of CVD risk.

That is, if one’s resistance to insulin is high or increasing steadily with age, then the individual is more likely to have heart disease. Tracking changes in insulin resistance and reversing them at an early stage can avoid heart disease in the long term.

Source: cardiab.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12933-025-02651-6